E18: Trump is a degrother, tariffs are taxing Americans hard, trade lifts all boats and “Breakfast for Eight Billion”
Tony Morley, August 28th, 2025
“Degrowth argues that people should not only tolerate but desire a smaller economy. That’s second-term Trumponomics, and everyone stands to be worse off for it.” — Annie Lowrey
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Trump Is a Degrowther
“What else do you call a strategy designed to raise prices and lower productivity?”
Tariffs, excessive government manipulation and control of the market, the erosion of economic liberties — this isn’t a recipe for prosperity and abundance in America, but one of degrowth, dearth and decline.
“Americans, now and in the future, will be paying more and buying less. Trump’s second-term economic ideology is not only one of protectionism, mercantilism, atavism, and cronyism. It is also one of degrowth.”
Annie Lowrey
“Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know? And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.” If only that was the worst of it.”
“People are having fewer babies: Is it really the end of the world?”
For decades, the worry was that there wouldn’t be enough food, water, energy and raw materials to go on supporting such a large human population. Today, it appears those fears were more wrong than almost anyone could have expected. In Dean Spears and Michael Geruso’s book After The Spike, they argue that a shrinking population would likely create a world with less innovation, production and growth, and lower living standards.
“Steep population declines in most countries are expected to have negative impacts over the next several generations, but adaptation is possible.”
“But concerns about overpopulation have flipped. Population growth has been slowing down over the past 50 years, and the average total fertility rate stands at 2.2. In about half of countries, it has fallen below 2.1, the threshold generally needed to maintain a steady population.”
Lynne Peeples
“Breakfast for Eight Billion”
“We were a hunting and gathering species whose near-sole occupation was the catching and finding of enough calories and water to fill the bellies and slake the thirst of ourselves and our offspring.”
Tony Morley
“The fact that the vast majority of those living in the West today can walk to the kitchen for breakfast in the morning and find cold milk, fresh eggs, ham and soft bread at arm's reach is the unimaginable fantasy of our pre-industrial ancestors.”
“Sometime in the 1980s, an unprecedented change in the human condition occurred. For the first time in known history, the average person on Earth had enough to eat all the time.” — Charles C. Mann
Tariffs are going to raise prices in the short and long-run
The current American administration is hell-bent on carpet-bombing the world with import tariffs, but rather than improving the lives of Americans, tariffs are likely to make life more expensive, in the short-run, and the long-run.
“U.S. tariffs have climbed to an average rate of 18.6%—the highest since 1933. But what does this mean for everyday consumers?”
Tariffs raise prices for consumers in the short-run, and the long-run, resulting in “an average per household income loss of US$2,700.” “U.S. tariffs have climbed to an average rate of 18.6%—the highest since 1933”
“Tariffs are a regressive tax, especially in the short run,” it said. “This means that tariffs burden households at the bottom of the income ladder more than those at the top as a share of income.”
Visual Capitalist
“Among the hardest-hit categories are primary goods like metals, which are projected to rise by 41.0%, and crops, expected to climb by 31.5%. Consumer goods will also be significantly affected: clothing prices could jump 36.6%, electronics 17.0%, and motor vehicles 12.4%.” — Charting How U.S. Tariffs Will Hit Key Products, Visual Capitalist
The Rising Tide: How Trade Lifts All Boats
“Trade has been a driving force behind economic growth, poverty reduction, and rising living standards across the globe. Far from harming the poor, open markets have helped lift billions out of extreme poverty while improving health, education, and life expectancy. History and modern evidence alike show that free exchange expands the economic “pie” for everyone, making prosperity the norm rather than the exception.” — Walker Wright
Walker Wright
“The more human beings diversified as consumers and specialised as producers, and the more they then exchanged, the better off they have been, are and will be.”
“Free exchange turns scarcity into abundance for rich and poor alike.”
“The Scottish father of economics, Adam Smith, recognized the economic potential of trade when he noted that “the liberal system of free exportation and free importation” is “not only the best palliative of a dearth, but [also] the most effectual preventative of a famine.”
A cure for HIV-infected infants may soon be within reach
“In a study published last year, Goulder described how all five remained in remission, despite having not received regular antiretroviral medication for some time, and in one case, up to 17 months. In the decades-long search for an HIV cure, this offered a tantalizing insight: that the first widespread success in curing HIV might not come in adults, but in children.”
“Evidence is growing that some HIV-infected infants, if given antiretroviral drugs early in life, are able to suppress their viral loads to undetectable levels and then come off the medicine.”
David Cox
“Instead of their viral loads being through the roof, they were undetectable,”
The Ghost in Capitalism's Machine: Industrial policy returns to global trade: A boring subject with significant global implications
Industrial policy is a boring subject with significant global implications. Far from being confined to the world of academia, it's the defining factor impacting the price of a new car, a Nintendo Switch or your monthly grocery bill.
“Industrial policy is the ghost in capitalism’s machine — always present, rarely acknowledged.”
“With overall average effective tariff rates now at 18.3%, the highest since 1934 according to the Yale Budget Lab, the US is heading down a very different path to its post-Second World War trajectory. Beyond "reciprocity," what logic underpins this?”
Peter Draper
Boeing 737: American Made but Globally Sourced
Thousands of parts from twenty countries, spanning six continents, go into making an American-made Boeing 737; tariffs raise the cost of these critical inputs, stifling productivity. Tariffs hinder innovation and complex manufacturing.
“The Boeing 737 is often seen as a symbol of American aerospace excellence. But peel back the fuselage and you’ll discover a much more intricate story—one of international collaboration, supply chain complexity, and global interdependence.”
Julie Peasley
We're still figuring out how to destroy 'forever chemicals,' at scale, but we're making progress
PFAS (Perfluoroalkyl and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances), also known as "forever chemicals," are extremely difficult, energy-intensive and expensive to destroy; however, new technologies in pilot programs are showing real promise in breaking them down.
“There's a "large and growing" market opportunity for PFAS destruction companies.”
Oil spills from tankers have fallen to less than one-thirtieth of the levels seen in the 1970s
Improved ship design, navigation, geopositioning, communication and procedures have resulted in far less oil being spilled into the ocean. It's a tremendous win for the natural environment, despite global oil production and trade increasing dramatically.
“These losses have fallen dramatically since the millennium. Last year, 10,000 tonnes were spilled, less than one-thirtieth of the amount lost in a typical year in the 1970s.”
Hannah Ritchie
Why mRNA Vaccines Are So Revolutionary—And What’s at Stake if We Lose Them
mRNA vaccine development was a once-in-a-lifetime breakthrough, and we've only begun to explore the full potential of how positively impactful the technology could be in transforming the prevention of disease. “What makes mRNA so valuable is its programmability—and, for pandemics, the speed at which it can be programmed.”
“The move drew sharp criticism from medical and health experts. “Scrapping the fastest platform we have is a reckless move rooted in a fundamental misunderstanding of vaccinology,”
Stephanie Pappas
“We are working on about 30 different mRNA vaccines, including ones for influenza, HIV, hepatitis C, malaria, tuberculosis, and many others,”
Common asthma drug could prevent life-threatening allergic reactions
A breakthrough utilising a common off-the-shelf asthma drug is showing strong promise and might be able to stop anaphylaxis resulting from severe food allergens.
“We could take mice that normally respond to food allergens and make them unresponsive. We are now testing whether the same drug, which is already used clinically for asthma, can reduce allergen absorption in the gut in people with food allergy. If so, this could provide a treatment to prevent anaphylaxis,”
“A single dose of the asthma medication zileuton stopped severe allergic reactions in mice by blocking food allergens from entering the bloodstream”
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